Why Trump Achieved a Breakthrough in the Middle East Yet Faces Challenges Regarding Vladimir Putin Over the Ukraine Conflict
Reports of an impending American-Russian presidential meeting have been greatly exaggerated, apparently.
Only a few days after President Trump said he intended to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in Budapest - "in approximately a fortnight" - the summit has been put off without a new date.
A initial get-together by the both countries' top diplomats has been called off, too.
"I don't want to have a wasted meeting," President Trump told reporters at the executive mansion on a recent weekday. "I aim to avoid a pointless effort, so I will observe what transpires."
- Trump states he wished to avoid a 'unproductive session' after plan for negotiations with Putin postponed
- Letdown in Ukraine's capital as President Zelensky departs Washington without results
The frequently changing meeting is another development in Trump's attempts to mediate an end to hostilities in the Eastern European nation – a subject of increased attention for the US president after he orchestrated a truce and prisoner exchange agreement in Gaza.
During a speech in Egypt recently to commemorate that ceasefire agreement, the president addressed his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a new request.
"We have to get Russia done," he declared.
Nonetheless, the conditions that converged to make a Middle East success achievable for Witkoff and his team may be difficult to duplicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been ongoing for almost several years.
Less Leverage
Per Witkoff, the crucial element to unlocking a agreement was the Israeli government's decision to attack Hamas negotiators in the Gulf state. It was a move that angered US partners in the Arab world but provided the president bargaining power to compel Israel's leader Benjamin Netanyahu into making a deal.
Trump benefited from a long record of supporting Israel since his initial presidency, including his choice to relocate the American embassy to Jerusalem, to alter US policy on the legality of Israeli settlements in the West Bank and, more recently, his support for Israeli defense operations against Iran.
The US president, actually, is better regarded among Israelis than Netanyahu – a situation that provided him with unique influence over the Israeli leader.
Add in Trump's political and economic ties to key Arab players in the region, and he had a abundant diplomatic muscle to force an agreement.
Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, by contrast, the president has significantly reduced influence. Over the past nine months, he has swung between efforts to strong-arm Putin and then the Ukrainian leader, all with little seeming effect.
Trump has threatened to enact new sanctions on Russia's oil and gas sales and to supply Ukraine with advanced missile systems. But he has also acknowledged that such actions could disrupt the global economy and further escalate the conflict.
At the same time, the president has publicly berated Zelensky, halting briefly intelligence-sharing with Ukraine and suspending weapon deliveries to the country - only to then back off in the face of concerned European allies who caution a Ukrainian collapse could disrupt the whole area.
Trump loves to tout his skill to meet and negotiate deals, but his face-to-face meetings with both Putin and Zelensky have not appeared to move the hostilities any closer to a peaceful end.
The Russian president may actually be exploiting the US leader's wish for a settlement – and faith in direct negotiations - as a method of manipulating him.
In July, Russia's leader agreed to a high-level meeting in Alaska just as it seemed probable that the president would sign off on congressional sanctions package supported by GOP senators. That bill was afterwards delayed.
Recently, as reports spread that the White House was seriously contemplating shipping long-range missiles and air defense systems to Kyiv, the president of Russia phoned Trump who then touted the possible meeting in Hungary.
The following day, the president hosted Ukraine's leader at the executive residence, but departed without agreements after a reportedly strained discussion.
The US leader insisted that he was not being played by Putin.
"You know, I have been manipulated throughout my career by the best of them, and I emerged successfully," he remarked.
However the president of Ukraine later made note of the timeline of developments.
"Once the issue of advanced weaponry became a less accessible for Ukraine – for our nation – the Russian side quickly became less engaged in negotiations," he said.
Thus, in a matter of days, Trump has shifted from considering the idea of providing weapons to the Eastern European country to organizing a meeting in Hungary with Russia's leader and privately pressuring Zelensky to surrender all of Donbas – including territory Russian forces has been failed to capture.
He has finally decided on calling for a ceasefire along present frontlines – a proposal Russia has rejected.
During his election campaign previously, the candidate vowed that he could resolve the conflict in Ukraine in a very short time. He has since abandoned that commitment, admitting that concluding the hostilities is proving harder than he expected.
It has been a uncommon admission of the constraints of his authority – and the challenge of finding a framework for peace when neither side wants, or can afford to, cease hostilities.