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Elections are now in progress for parliamentary elections in Holland, with current polling data indicating that the anti-immigration firebrand Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) could once again win the most seats, though analysts suggest PVV stands little chance of joining the next government.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which in the last election achieved a shock first-place finish and established a four-party all-conservative coalition that lasted barely a year, is now marginally ahead in the polls and is projected to win between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-member house of representatives.

Nevertheless, PVV's popularity has declined since 2023, when it secured 37 seats. Every significant political group have publicly ruled out forming a government with Wilders, who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in the summer amid a dispute concerning his controversial immigration plans.

Major Parties and Forecasts

At the end of a campaign dominated by issues such as immigration, healthcare costs, and the nation's severe housing crisis, the centre-left GL/PvdA coalition, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, projected to win between 22 to 26 seats.

Also performing well is the liberal-progressive D66, projected to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the right-leaning CDA is anticipated to more than double its seat tally to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the PVV, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all forecast to lose seats, with several experiencing significant declines.

Voting Process and Fragmentation

Under the Netherlands' electoral system, gaining just less than one percent of the vote earns a party one MP. Among the two dozen political groups contesting the election – which include parties for the over-50s, youth parties, for animals, for a universal basic income, and sports parties – up to 16 may gain entry to the legislature.

This high degree of division ensures that no single party is ever likely to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by coalitions – often including four parties in the last few administrations – for over 100 years.

Government Formation

The PVV leader claimed that "the democratic process would end" in the Netherlands if the PVV ends up as the largest party yet is shut out of government. But, critics and analysts argue that first place does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any governing alliance with a majority is a democratic outcome.

Although the final outcome is uncertain and government negotiations may require months, analysts suggest that following the most extreme government in recent memory, the future government is expected to be a inclusive alliance headed by either the moderate left or moderate right.

Election Day Details

Voting locations, such as those in the miniature city Madurodam in the capital and the Anne Frank museum in the capital city, opened at 7:30 AM (6.30am GMT) and will conclude at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate exit poll is expected soon after the polls close.

After the vote, an informateur will explore possible coalitions that could command a majority in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must face a vote of confidence in parliament before assuming power.