🔗 Share this article

Just 48 hours to go.

England's opening match in Australia starts on the morning of Friday.

With the help of CricViz, we examine where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be decided.

It's tough to score runs, right?

Batsmen on each side of the Ashes divide might be wondering why they are bothering to show up.

Much of the pre-series discussion has focused on the perceived difficulty of scoring runs, particularly for the opening match on a Perth pitch labeled a "lush, challenging surface".

When it comes to batting in Australia, particularly against pace bowling, no nation has been harder in which to accumulate runs over the past five years.

Two key factors for this: wickets and balls.

Overall, the pitches produced in Australia have recently proved to be the quickest, highest bouncing and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Speed and inconsistent bounce are the ideal combination for difficult batting conditions.

A long-standing narrative from English cricket paints the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a useless tool for a pace bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, resulting in increased seam movement.

Seam is a much bigger weapon than swing bowling in this country.

Since the new Kookaburra, pace bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about problem solving.

When bowlers dominate, batsmen's contributions can be the deciding factor, and the reverse is true.

Should this series be dominated by the ball, a batsman could have the chance to be the key factor between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australian pace attack?

On this occasion, England have arrived in Australia with their fast-bowling unit mostly fit, while the hosts are the ones hit by injuries.

Skipper Pat Cummins will miss at least the first Test with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unspecified time because of a hamstring injury.

Pat Cummins, Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first paired as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 Ashes.

From that point, they have taken together 81% of the dismissals taken by Australian fast bowlers in home Tests.

The Australian team have seldom needed alternatives because of the effectiveness and durability of the 'big three'.

When Australia have required support, Scott Boland has been sensational, taking 62 dismissals in 14 matches at an average below 17.

Aside from Scott Boland, other bowlers of the backup squad have performed well.

Michael Neser, Richardson and James Pattinson all average below 30 in domestic Tests.

The last time Australia went into a home match without both key bowlers, and were defeated, was in the year 2012.

The past two times they have played at home without the pair, they have triumphed by a combined 694 runs, including a win against England in the Adelaide Test four years ago.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to look beyond their star fast bowlers, outcomes have not been affected – England should take heed.

Challenging Openings

Recall the time England struggled to identify an opening batsman to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef went through partners faster than Watford go through managers.

No more.

Since Ben Duckett and Zak Crawley were united at the top of the England order at the end of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has scored more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a partnership has been a reason in Zak Crawley being supported through some patchy form.

Crawley, who memorably hit the first ball of the last Ashes series for four, has also been identified as having the technique for Australian conditions.

His batting average rises when the bowling gets faster.

In comparison, Australia's top order is in a constant state of flux, still seeking to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

After Warner's retirement at the beginning of 2024, Khawaja has batted with five various openers in 15 Tests.

Yet to debut Weatherald looks set to become the sixth opener in 16 on the opening day, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening combo.

It is not just the openers that has caused problems for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was moved to open for the World Test Championship final, then dropped entirely.

Domestic form has brought him back, most likely back at three.

Across seven matches in 2025, Australia's top three have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have done worse.

Spin war

Between two closely matched sides, there is a single department where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, all 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spin bowlers to ever play.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a somewhat successful selection punt, looking short of form after a broken finger, while Will Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It makes sense for the home team to want Nathan Lyon at the forefront, but bowling spin has been extremely challenging in Australia for the last decade.

In that time, slow bowlers have averaged almost 44 in Australia, albeit Lyon's statistics largely stands up compared to the difficulties of visiting tweakers.

Lyon's other issue is actually bowling enough overs.

Remember the effectiveness of fast bowling?

It limits Lyon's time with ball in hand.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Nathan Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five Tests against the Indian team, it was half that number.

Tests in Australia are 25% shorter since the updated ball was introduced, meaning the spinner has less space to influence the game.

Favorable Conditions?

The English team have a depressing habit of being beaten in an away Ashes before Father Christmas has set off.

The series traditionally started in Brisbane, where they have failed to win since 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed by a day-night Test in Adelaide.

The visitors have a single victory in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while Australia have won 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a city England have visited on 14 occasions since 1970 and won only once, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

This time, the initial three venues on the tour are the identical, only in a rearranged order and under altered conditions.

The Perth Test hosts an Ashes opener for the first time, not at the fabled Waca – site of past English struggles – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It remains a tough assignment, though one the visitors approach with no historical baggage.

Brisbane is the location for the second Test, the day-nighter.

The last time Australia played a pink-ball Test at the Gabba, they were stunned by West Indies.

Likewise, the Aussies are now not used to playing day matches at the usual day-night venue Adelaide Oval.

In the two red-ball matches played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia lost one, to India, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a new opportunity at beginning an overseas series positively, though with risks.

The home side have secured victory in four of the five Tests played at Perth Stadium, though the one defeat came in the most recent match – against India last year.

Every Test at the new ground has been claimed by the team batting first.

England often complicate floodlit Tests, when statistics indicate the pink cricket ball does not perform much differently from its traditional red ball.

The issue in {day-night matches|